While a decrease in human activity during the COVID-19 pandemic has temporarily led to cleaner air, the outbreak has also caused a delay in investments and innovation in clean energy technology, which could have lasting negative effects on health, a new study says.
As businesses closed during the pandemic, greenhouse gas emissions dropped around the world. In the U.S., a decrease in jet fuel, gasoline and natural gas consumption led to a 15% drop in CO2 emissions. If the trend continues, the nation will experience the largest annual CO2 emission decline in history, the June study in Joule said.
But those same business closures also hurt companies that are working to support clean energy, such as solar and wind power, which do not have the the health risks that come with traditional energy sources.
If the COVID-19 outbreak is sustained and creates a persistent, long-term economic recession, it could offset and even reverse progress made on improving air quality, the study found. Researchers predict it could cause an additional 2,500 million metric tons of carbon dioxide to be emitted through 2035, resulting in 40 more deaths per month.
As COVID-19 cases began to surge in the U.S. in June as many states reopened non-essential businesses, including bars and dine-in restaurants, that scenario became increasingly likely, according to Kenneth Gillingham, PhD, MS, an associate professor of environmental and energy economics at the Yale University’s School of Forestry and Environmental Studies and lead author of the study.
“We began modeling this back in February and March, and even then, we saw that a swift, V-shaped recovery wasn’t as likely,” Gillingham told The Nation’s Health. “It’s sad and disappointing to see we are on the other path.”
An economic squeeze could halt forward progress on environmentally conscious projects such as the development of electric cars and buses to localities investing in alternative-energy options for residents.
“Overall, clean energy jobs dropped by almost 600,000 by the end of April, as investments in energy efficiency and renewable generation have plummeted,” Marten Ovaere, PhD, a postdoctoral researcher at Yale and co-author of the study, said in a news release. “If that were to continue, it could significantly set back the push toward a clean energy future.”
Policymakers can mitigate some of the harms by prioritizing environmental concerns when they put together stimulus or recovery legislation, Gillingham said. Federal legislation after the Great Recession promoted new energy infrastructure, setting a precedent.
And while the temporary improvements to air quality from the pandemic will not last, they offer something for health and environmental advocates to fight for.
“These short-term improvements might show us what we can aspire to,” Gillingham said. “If we can see the San Bernardino Mountains now, where we couldn’t before, we can point to that and say, ‘This is what we could have if we got gas guzzlers off of the road.’”
For more information on the study, visit https://www.cell.com/joule.
- Copyright The Nation’s Health, American Public Health Association
