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Surge in US poverty would ignite public health crisis, experts warn

Sophia Meador
The Nation's Health November/December 2025, 55 (9) 1-12;
Sophia Meador
  • Search for this author on this site
Figure

Food banks across the U.S., which are already struggling with demand, are further crunched when poverty levels increase.

Photo courtesy Philabundance

“People who have higher health care needs are likely going to experience a lot of harm.”

— Elizabeth Zhang

Philabundance, a food bank in Philadelphia, provided 35 million meals across nine counties in Pennsylvania and New Jersey last year, helping people in need get vital access to nutritious food.

But sustaining that level of assistance is becoming more difficult. With cuts to social programs on the horizon and rising costs for essential items, low-income households are expected to face even greater challenges in meeting basic needs. Philabundance's ability to keep up with growing demand is in doubt, said Callie Perrone, the organization's government affairs manager.

“We would need to more than triple our efforts to be able to meet the needs that's anticipated, all while food banks are losing federal funding,” Perrone told The Nation's Health.

Last year, about 44 million Americans lived in poverty, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Poverty rates rose among older adults and Black Americans, highlighting growing disparities.

The current economic slowdown has created more barriers for Americans to meet their basic needs. Across Philabundance's service area, more people are relying on the food bank for support.

“They're seeing a lot of new faces that they haven't seen before,” Perrone said. “People are struggling now who weren't prior.”

That crisis is poised to intensify in the coming years, driven by recent policy decisions from the Trump administration and the Republican-controlled Congress.

In July, Congress approved a broad legislative package that significantly cut funding for food assistance programs, public health insurance and other initiatives aimed at low-income housing and community services. The cuts will have a significant impact on Americans with low incomes, Kyle Ross, a policy analyst at the Center for American Progress, told The Nation's Health.

“These programs are explicitly targeted toward people in poverty,” Ross said. “And if that were not bad enough, the tariff policies that the administration has been pursuing are extremely regressive.”

A September analysis from the center predicts the federal budget package “will have devastating consequences on poverty” and that the number of people experiencing severe financial hardship will surge.

Cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, combined with rising prices for basic goods and recent increases in unemployment, will make it increasingly difficult for millions of households to keep food on the table.

SNAP supports low-income families, older adults and people with disabilities by supplementing their grocery budgets, helping them afford nutritious food. Under the upcoming cuts, recipients may face reduced monthly benefits or lose eligibility entirely due to stricter work requirements.

Figure

Philabundance, a Philadelphia-based food bank, provided 35 million meals in Pennsylvania and New Jersey last year alone.

Photo courtesy Philabundance

Children in households who participate in SNAP have better physical and mental health, research has found. Thanks to better nutrition, children on SNAP have better growth outcomes, miss fewer days of school, have greater focus in class and have less developmental risks, according to Lanae Hood, PhD, policy associate at the Center for Science in the Public Interest.

Ending SNAP or reducing benefits will force households to make cost tradeoffs. That can mean trading food quality for quantity, substituting nutrient-dense fruits and vegetables with unhealthy processed foods that are less expensive.

“We know that has really big implications — not only on physical health, but also mental health,” Hood told The Nation's Health.

For older adults and people with disabilities who rely on the program, SNAP cuts could force difficult choices, such as skipping prescription medications, going without heating or air conditioning, or falling behind on rent and other essential bills.

Millions to lose health coverage

In addition to rising grocery costs, cuts to Medicare and Medicaid — along with changes to the Affordable Care Act — are expected to drive up health care expenses for millions of Americans.

The federal budget is projected to cause an estimated 16 million more Americans to be uninsured by 2034, according to the Congressional Budget Office — in addition to the 27.1 million people who are already uninsured today. Without insurance, many people will face significantly higher out-of-pocket costs for essential medical care or even skip needed care altogether.

Americans will be facing more than just Medicaid and Medicare cuts, however. Premium tax credits for marketplace insurance plan users are scheduled to expire at the end of this year. As a result, over 20 million people could face significant increases in their insurance premiums, and about 4 million may lose health coverage altogether, according to the budget office.

Investments in public health insurance programs have significantly expanded coverage for people of color, particularly in Black and Hispanic communities, according to Elizabeth Zhang, health policy research assistant at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. Those coverage gains are now in danger of being rolled back, especially for people with serious health conditions.

“People who have higher health care needs are likely going to experience a lot of harm from this bill and these changes because health coverage is especially important for people with chronic conditions,” Zhang told The Nation's Health.

Cuts to Medicaid could also have a significant impact on rural communities, where many Americans rely on the public health insurance programs due to lower incomes, large older-adult populations, higher costs for private insurance and fewer private coverage options.

When a large share of patients lose coverage, rural health care providers face substantial revenue losses, potentially forcing more clinics and hospitals to close and worsening already limited access to care in these underserved areas.

“We can expect some of the long-term impacts of this to be less people seeking preventative care and more people ending up in the emergency department as a last resort…leading to emergency departments being more overwhelmed,” Zhang said.

While increased cost for essential goods and health care will cause hurt nationwide, some communities may experience even greater burdens.

Low-income families of color were especially hurt by the Great Recession and COVID-19 pandemic-era recession, an August report from the Economic Policy Institute found. Families of color represent more than 60% of all economically vulnerable families with children.

Figure

More Americans will be pushed into financial hardship by planned cuts to Medicaid and tax credits, researchers predict.

Photo by FatCamera, courtesy iStockphoto

“A lot of these families also were more likely than their more affluent peers to have a parent or child that was disabled within the home,” Ismael Cid-Martinez, MPhil, an economist at the Economic Policy Institute and co-author of the report, told The Nation's Health.

Rising costs of living could further push disadvantaged households into greater financial strain, Cid-Martinez said. Nearly half of American renters spend over 30% of their income on housing, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Black renters are disproportionately burdened by rental costs compared to other populations.

“When we look at housing insecurity…you see that more than 80% of these families are struggling with that,” he said. “The trend has been rising since 2007. It's pretty clear that this is serving as a key driver of economic insecurity.”

As the provisions of the federal budget take effect in the coming years, many Americans — particularly older adults, rural residents and people of color — are likely to bear the some of toughest burdens from the policy changes.

In Philadelphia, Perrone said the food bank's resources have long been stretched thin. But with all that is predicted to be ahead, organizations such as Philabundance expect to face growing pressure to meet rising needs.

“I feel disheartened, because the reality is that hunger is a policy choice,” Perrone said. “Our federal government made a choice to increase hunger in our communities. It did not have to be this way.”

For more information, visit www.epi.org, www.census.gov and www.philabundance.org.

  • Copyright The Nation’s Health, American Public Health Association
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The Nation's Health: 55 (9)
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November/December 2025
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Surge in US poverty would ignite public health crisis, experts warn
Sophia Meador
The Nation's Health November/December 2025, 55 (9) 1-12;

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Surge in US poverty would ignite public health crisis, experts warn
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