As climate change continues to threaten health on a global scale, heat wave deaths are projected to sharply increase over the next several decades, according to research published in July in Plos Medicine.
Researchers used a model to predict heat wave-related excess mortality in 412 communities in 20 countries and regions between 2031 and 2080 under several global climate change scenarios.
They found that if trends continue, countries and regions close to the equator are expected to have the greatest increase in heat wave-related mortality, with European countries and the U.S. experiencing smaller increases. Without any adaptation to climate change, Colombia, followed by the Philippines and Brazil, will experience the highest increase in heat wave deaths. Under the most extreme scenario, changes in heat wave-related mortality from 2031 to 2080, compared with 1971 to 2020, range from about 2,000 percent in Colombia to 150 percent in Moldova.
However, the effects of a warming planet are already apparent. Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration show that 2017 was the third-warmest year on record. 2016 was the warmest on record and 2015 came in second. The outlook is not optimistic for coming decades.
“Future heat waves in particular will be more frequent, more intense and will last much longer, lead study author Yuming Guo, MD, MMED, PhD, associate professor of environmental epidemiology and biostatistics at Monash University, said in a news release. “If we cannot find a way to mitigate the climate change and help people adapt to heat waves, there will be a big increase of heat wave-related deaths in the future, particularly in the poor countries located around the equator.”
The study referred to heat waves as “a critical health problem,” tied to heat-related illnesses as well as cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases and diabetes.
Researchers stressed the need for adaptation to increasingly warming temperatures, particularly in developing countries in tropical and subtropical regions. With adaptation strategies, a much smaller increase in heat wave deaths is expected compared with no adaptation. Interventions can be taken at several different levels: individual, interpersonal, community, institutional, environmental and public policy.
“The good news is that if we mitigate greenhouse gas emissions under scenarios that comply with the Paris Agreement, then the projected impact will be much reduced,” study co-author Antonio Gasparrini, PhD, MSc, Mbiol, associate professor of biostatistics and epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said in the news release.
For more information, visit http://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1002629.
- Copyright The Nation’s Health, American Public Health Association